Climate change is a product of too many greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the air. Fortunately, most experts agree that we have an opportunity to stop our present trend of emitting increasing amounts of greenhouse gases, and avoid risking irreconcilable damage to the planet and our society. Therefore, our goal, generally speaking, is the reduction of GHGs being emitted into the atmosphere. We can be even more precise than that: in order to substantially reduce the risks of climate change, we must aim to stabilize CO2 equivalent levels below 450 parts per million (ppm) in the atmosphereThe current level is 430ppm and rising at 2-3ppm a year. This is far too much and we are already witnessing significant indications that this is the case.

We must aim to stabilize CO2 equivalent levels below 450ppm in the atmosphere.

Why 450ppm?

Currently available models predict that stabilization at this level is likely to result in a global average temperature rise of approximately 2.5°C; small enough to avoid the worst potential impacts of climate change.

Achieving this target won’t be easy. It will require global reductions of CO2 emissions in the order of 80% below current levels by the end of the century, with much of that reduction coming in the next two decades. That’s a hefty target for a world that continues to increase in population, energy consumption and, unfortunately, it’s output of GHGs. Canada is far below meeting this requirement.

Doing so requires leadership from countries and people with the resources to effect change. We must remember that it is countries like Canada that have benefited from 200 years of industrial growth, fuelled primarily by fossil fuels and CO2 emissions. It is unreasonable to expect that the countries least responsible for the problem, and least able to afford the solution, such as China or India, will clean up our mess. It is up to us to show that our quality of life can be achieved in an environmentally responsible manner.

Too often the argument is made that we need to choose between averting climate change and maintaining economic growth. We don’t. With technical innovation, sensible policies, and changes in our personal behaviour, we can decouple economic growth from CO2 emissions. In the long run, inaction will result in greater damage to the economy than the costs associated with adaptation now.

While we may be too late to stop the climate change that will occur in the coming decades, we are capable of adapting our societies and our economies to cope with the coming changes.